How to not predict the future

Tap to continue

Nobody can predict the future of a technology.

But we can ask a different question instead.

We can ask, Given what we know, what needs to change so that something else can happen?

For example, we can ask, What would have to happen so that a given technology becomes commercially available?

To answer this question, you can use data from across tech and business.

Let’s assume you know only that R&D publications have gone up:

This doesn't yet tell you much.

But if you also knew...

...then you'd say a lot still needs to happen before commercial-ization.

"No venture investments"

"No industry activities"

Now contrast this with... you'd say that commercialization is already happening.

"$500M venture investments"

"Fortune 500 companies use the technology"

...if you want the real picture of where a technology stands.

You need a 360° view

Mergeflow gives you a 360° view across tech and business.

Try it out: